List for Thursday, Nov 1, 2007

Looking Good: TMTA REVU BPHX ABAX FDRY OSIP ZIXI

Technical Temptations:

Technical Temptations: EFUT DRIV KAD LSI CGLD CQB CNX OSIP NSANY CPWR PHUN EJ AVNX CBAK CHHL BPHX BKUNA NTGR IRBT BPEV STP HAFC PSD SWIR MRCY IFSIA SMXMF DVW WSFG SNCR UNTD LLNW FDRY ZIXI CSUN

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosions: DSX CPYE EPAY DROOY DRYS ACTU PSEG TKLC ININ

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Scary Day! Halloween! Wednesday, Oct 31 2007

Congrats to those who got into EDAC or shorted SILC

Looking good: IDIX SCSC PANC CSH CTEL TSO

Technical Temptations:

Technical Temptations: CFC-A GMO EME WPL BZH VG EFII MGI TSO BLUD ALGN HBI VPRT CHDO DV GVA CTEL LGCP ALXN BCSI CSH PANC SCSC VLTR TRID

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosions: LUNA WATG SSRX MIGO SUPG SOHU DVW

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Congrats to whoever got into ITI.

Huge list and there are lot of bear flags! If market moves down in a couple of days, these will all break down.

Looking good: DAIO ABAX QLGC

Technical Temptations:



Technical Temptations: ERFW AXYS ASIA SOLM SYMC LECO FLML TRIB NIHD PALM ELON CBEL GTEC REVU VAR CRI CEC QLGC ENMD UCTT LFG TGIC CDNS ABAX PMI FSS AGO ACF DAIO ZMH CMI BW



Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosions: POWI KAD ZIXI XXIA RMTR SLT LTRE BPEV KRY SMXMF SWIR PANC


Cheers!
Lazy

List for Monday, October 29, 2007

ZRAN, ARTG and SAY from yesterday's list made good moves.

Looking good from today: CRNT PKTR HXL VLNC PFWD ITI TMTA VOCS (CRNT, VOCS are earnings bull flag)

Technical Temptations:



Technical Temptations: WAT GGL EEFT VOCS TMTA PFWD EVVV KMT PCAR LWLL ITI WCI WBS VLCM VLNC SLB NYT HXL PLT IVAN TVIN STV RCH UIS


Volume Explosions:


Volume Explosions: NMXC FASC MRCY HITT RNOW NECB MSFT IFSIA DRIV ABAX



Cheers!
Lazy

List for Friday, Oct 26, 2007

If anyone got in NRMX, congrats!

Looking good: ZRAN KUN SAY ARTG EDAC JDAS (ZRAN, EDAC and JDAS are Earnings bull flag)

Technical Temptations:

Technical Temptations: SATC JDAS EDAC MICC LCRD NSOL CGLD ARTG NEOM CNC GHDX ARTC PCS AIT DMOI QXM SILC SAY KUN ZRAN SCUR

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosions: BTI CYD AGP NSSI TOH ROTB

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Thursday, Oct 25, 2007

Looking good: PLUG PKTR CRNT

Technical Temptations:

Technical Temptations: ACO PGI CRNT CPNE RX CGX KNX AVCI SGP PKTR HEPI PLUG

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosions: TKO ANO ASIA GSPG IVAN MYST CREG AMMY AMSG

Cheers!
Lazy

List for Wednesday, Oct 24, 2007

Looking Good: HLYS IMMU

Technical Temptations:

Technical Temptations: UGTH TGIC PRZ VGZ COTE NANX POTP ZIGO

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosions: GGL NEOM PBOF PLUG CBEL

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Tuesday, Oct 23, 2007

Tough day!

Looking good: CECO PLCM

Technical Temptations:

Technical Temptations: AXK PLCM CICI LOGI CECO FLIP EXK OKN.W VRTX

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosions: CYBS VLNC SATC TRAK DUG ACO MIVT PGI

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Monday, Oct 22, 2007

Defense is the key in this choppy market, still lets put a list.

Looking good: NRMX OMEX CNTF CPSL (Chinese stocks might be risky at the moment)

Technical Temptations:

Patterns: HMIN SIMG FTEK PTR CPSL ITPD ACH CNTF SPKL SQNM OMEX DPZ CHHL LFC NRMX EGHT GLIF

Volume Explosion:

Volume Explosion: MICG DSX IVAN DLAV CGDF OEH EOC PURE SYT

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Friday, Oct 19, 2007

Both ANTP and CKSW that were highlighted yesterday, showed strength!

Looking good today: IMMU WEL RPRX SEED

Technical Temptations:

Patterns: QSC MBLX EDU BEAS ENEI ZHNE NTWK RPRX QMAR WEL IMMU NLS GBT IFON CHNG

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosion: BLK PTT COTE VIV CICI GSB AXK LWLL

Cheers!
Lazy

List for Thursday, Oct 18, 2007

Looking good: ANTP CKSW

Technical Temptations:

Patterns: STTC CKSW HEB MDT DOIG USEG NMKT ANTP CYTV CHMD SDTH TRNP NIHK CBPC SDGL INSM BIIB TIBX QXM TELK LONG

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosion: AAAE SONS RBN OMEX DNAG

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Wednesday, Oct 17, 2007

Congrats to whoever got in VNDA

Looking good both from list and outside list: AVNR ARBA GRRF NINE PRLS UTSI GIGA JASO EXAS

The auto manufacturers, Ford (F) and GM have created bull flags!

Technical Temptations:

Patterns: CWTR MYST SVA GIGA JASO GM F

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosion: ACGI DOIG ANTP OKN NGLPF CHHL BCLI BELM SLTN NIHK ANO

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Tuesday, Oct 16, 2007

Technical Temptations:
Looking good from List: YUM CTEL NWD

Patterns: TSO YTEC NNTN AMMY CTEL VC MCHP YUM GMFX SEED NWD HIHO SPKL FRH.W

Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosion: CMMI USEG APDN OKN.W TRNP URRE PRVT HLYS

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Monday, Oct 15, 2007

Congrats to whoever had gotten into HEB or KRY

Looking good: VG AVNR CDS TRMP UTSI VNDA

Technical Temptations:

Patterns: VNDA CHME MEE CVBT CDS POTP UTVG SOIGF INSM DORB UTSI IVOI INAP TRMP MCET NINE FREE CSUN


Volume Explosions:

Volume Explosion: SDGL ENDE HEB TEF HLCS KANA AMMY GBM LGCP



Cheers!
Lazy

List for Friday, Oct 12, 2007

Difficult day at the market today, I think its better to wait and watch tomorrow.

LEV looks good from outside list. GNBT had started moving yesterday, might still provide decent entry.

Technical temptations:

Patterns: ALTI ATS CNLG RSMI ONT LDK

Unusual Volume Candidates:

Volume Explosion: SEED SDTH EXH SPSN XIDE SNTA FEED SNMB BLTA SGR ZANE IVAN

Maintain the stops!

Cheers!
Lazy

List for Thursday, Oct 11, 2007

Congrats to whoever got into CHNR SDTH CSUN CYTV ORS or CVDT

Core Technical Temptations List:
Looking good from outside list: NLST KONG GAI
Looking good from List: PACT AVNR VG



Patterns: UGTH VG COGN ABM AVNR AUO ZZ CRNT PACT CTDC


Volume Explosion List:


Volume Explosion: NTCT MCEL CLWT VRY GNOLF ESEA SEN NINE SNEN

Potential China Plays from today's list: KONG CTDC SNEN CLWT

Chinese stocks are very speculative and risky.

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Wednesday, Oct 10, 2007

Congrats to whoever had gotten into JRJC, CSUN or VCLK. VCLK was posted sometime last week, since then it has moved over 25%


NPSP made a big move today, but that was after the pattern had broken down yesterday, so not counted.


Core Technical Temptations List:
Looking good from outside list: DRL DSCO KONG SDTH
Looking good from List: STAR BHIP NEOL



Patterns: GTEC CHMD CLWR TNRO ORS IOC CRDC NEOL CBK CYTV LEV VTAL HSPO BHIP TIDE STAR CYTR

Volume Explosion List:

Volume Explosion: VG COGN UTVG ENL AII BCLI MWIS CAGC YUM

BCLI looks interesting.

Potential China Plays from today's list: CAGC CYTV ORS CHMD CDS

Chinese stocks are very speculative and risky.

Cheers!
Lazy.

List for Tuesday, Oct 9, 2007

Congrats to whoever got into CTDC. And sorry for whoever got into SSTR, that one does not have any legs! Was away from my computer most day, later saw that it shot up to 4.35 on some petty news and then broke down hard. Oh well!

Core Technical Temptations List:
Looking good from outside list: DSCO
Looking good from List: OSTK, EFUT, FBN

Patterns: NOEC HEPH VSEA FBN CVDT SNTA CHME NTRI ILE STTC EFUT MU CHNR OEH JRJC OSTK ISLN

Volume Explosion List:

Volume Explosion: ATS EXAS SKPI CHMD ENEI ICPR WTER INSM ETLT TNRO CNLG

Potential China Plays from today's both Lists: CHNR JRJC CVDT CHME CHMD (The last 3 are OTCBB stocks)

Remember, the Chinese stocks are very speculative and risky!

Cheers!
Lazy

Daily List Arrangement Changes Explained

Every night I post 3 types of candidates, picked from four exchanges - AMEX, NASDAQ, NYSE, OTCBB. The 3 types are:

1. Bullish Patterns - Based on technical analysis, and bullish chart patterns, most commonly the bull flag.

2. Bearish Patterns - Based on technical analysis, and bearish chart patterns, most commonly the bear flag.

3. Volume Explosion - These are not based on technical analysis per se, I just scan and post bunch of stocks that moved up on unusual volume, just to keep an watch over the next couple of days, in case something interesting happens. Most of these candidates, end up in the bull flag list within a couple of days anyway.

As the volume explosion candidates are not core picks from my system, going forward I will keep them separate.

So, this will be the format of the daily listing:

1. Mention of most promising candidates
2. Image with all bullish and bearish pattern candidates
3. Just symbols for the above stocks below the image, for easy copy and paste
4. Image with all volume explosion candidates
5. Just symbols for the above stocks below the image, for easy copy and paste

Remember, most of the picks might need a few days to develop into a proper pattern and make their move. Some might move the next day itself, but most of them will need time. So, give them few days. Also, some might never move and some might break down and reverse their course. Strictly follow technical trading guidelines.

And as always, day/swing trading is very risky.

Cheers!
Lazy

Technical Temptations Explained - Part V - Management

In this final installment, I will talk how I used to manage the picks that I post and how I picked trades.

1. I loaded the list into a watchlist and got rid of the ones that did not meet my price or exchange requirements. I would also get rid of some of the bearish candidates or the volume explosion candidates.

2. Then I would check the charts for each and get rid of the ones that did not look promising or the risk reward ratio was not favourable.

3. The ones that looked most promising, I used to note the buy price and stop price. Sometimes I even prepared the orders so that I could just execute them once the stock broke the trend line and volume looked good. Before buying I would check yahoo and msn stock page for news, earnings announcements, and also make sure they are not reporting earnings in a couple of days, if they are, then sell before earnings announcement. If the bull flag is a post earnings pattern and they reported stellar earnings, I trade bigger size. Post earnings Bull Flags are really Bullish (Dan Zanger agrees too!)

4. Every night before loading the new stocks I would remove the ones that I have already traded. For the rest I will again check the charts and if they do not look good anymore, get rid of them. Then I would load the new list and repeat the process.

5. As some of them take time to form a base and finally make a move, I would leave the ones with really good patterns for about 10-15 days.

6. I would decide trade size based on % of portfolio at risk in terms of trade risk. (I used an excel to derive the number of shares)

7. If some pattern looked too promising, I would bet more.

8. Every night I would reset my stops and check news on the open positions.

I think that's all. If you have any questions, do let me know.

Cheers!
Lazy

Technical Temptations Explained - Part IV - Risk Rewards and Stop

In this post we will look at price targets and risk reward ratios. When I buy a stock wouldn't it be nice to know what would be the potential price target? Technical patterns try to predict the price to which the stock might move. Sometimes price targets are attained but not always, so it is just a potential reward that you might expect.

For bull flags, the price target is the length of the pole, put at the point where trend line is broken. So, for XOMA that gave us a price target of 3.95 as shown in figure 1. And, good that the stock moved higher than that. So, that tells you, attaining price target does not mean you have to sell right away, but be more watchful, be prudent, manage your stops well.

When the flag is a steep declining one, then sometimes initial target might be treated as the top of the pole.




Figure 1: XOMA 1 month chart

And what is your risk. It is where you have put your stop.

So if you buy at 3.48 and put your stop at 3.35 and your potential price target is 3.95. Then you are risking 13 cents to potentially make 47 cents. That gives you a risk-reward ratio of 47/13 = 3.6:1 which is very good.

Anything above 2:1 is considered a favourable risk reward ratio.

When trying to figure at what price to buy and where to put my stops, I look at 10 day, 5 day - 15 min charts to give me better idea. Then as the stock starts moving I keep raising my stop to most recent lows, as shown in figure 2. Then if I see price/volume action weakening, I sell some.




Figure 2: XOMA 10 day chart

Always wait for the stock to clear resistance before buying. Don't let emotions come into play. I liked SSTR so much and I was so worried that I will miss the trade, that I bought it way prematurely, it was not ready yet, so I came back to my senses and got out, thankfully a bit above breakeven. If you look at 5 day chart, it needs to clear 4.23-4.24 before even considering it. Problem with buying early is, some stocks never clear resistance and just sit there for months or head down!


Some technical trading rules/discipline guidelines that might be of help:


http://www.thestockbandit.com/TradingRules.htm


http://www.chartpattern.com/10_golden_rules.html


Next we will talk about trade and list management!



Cheers!
Lazy

Technical Temptations Explained - Part III - Favourable Indicators

Now that we have identified the pattern, should we go ahead and buy anything that looks like a flag? Hope not! There are certain indicators to look for, that will bring the odds in our favour.

Lets look at them one by one.

Before going into the indicators, lets remember this, demand and supply trumps everything else. If the crowd is behind a stock, buying pressure is too much, none of these indicators really matter (what about those Chinese stocks recently!). But if you are given 3 stocks that have created bull flags, and you have to look at the charts and predict which one looks most promising, you will have to fall back on these indicators.

1. Length of the pole/angle of flag: Higher the pole the better, at least that is what I have found in lot of post flag big movers. And to accompany that, a steeper declining flag is better than an almost perpendicular flag (if it is perpendicular, if should not look like a flag, but it should look like a triangle or wedge. Perpendicular flags fail the most).

2. Tight Flag: The width of the flag (distance between highs and lows in the consolidation area)should not be too narrow neither too wide. Though too narrow flags look desirable as the stop can be very tight, they have more chances of failing, or atleast dipping enough to take your stop. Too wide flags make it difficult to put a decent stop and hence mess up the risk-reward ratio. (Bear with me, we will get into risk reward ratios in a moment). So, ideal is a medium range flag, as the one we saw in XOMA, but each stock is different, each trade is different, so we have to take it case by case.

3. Moving averages: While looking at the chart, put on the 5, 10, 20 and 50 day SMAs (Yes, simple moving averages should work fine). Ideal scenario is - 5 over the 10, 10 over the 20, 20 over the 50 and all moving upwards. Even if the sequence is not correct, if the 5 is slanting upwards, that is very desirable.

4. Well defined upper trend line: The upper trend line should be well defined, so that it is obvious to everyone, when that has been broken.

5. Basing Area: The whole of the flag is a basing area but if it is a steeply descending flag, then I prefer if it slows down a bit and curves horizontally. This signifies two things, buyers are taking over control from the sellers, and secondly, we get a well defined resistance line and lower support line (this is for the stop). Both GNTA and XOMA had classic bull flags, but GNTA's post flag upside move was abrupt, while in the case of XOMA, after 3 days of price/volume decline, the 4th day was a basing day with increasing volume. Resistance and support areas got clearly defined. Breaking of blue line would signal me to buy, while my stop would go below the green line. You could almost tell that it was ready to make a move the next day . (I am guessing GNTA's move was maybe news related)


Figure 1: GNTA classic bull flag

Figure 2: XOMA classic bull flag

6. Volume starts increasing: As seen above in the case of XOMA, though price has not yet broken through the resistance line, an increase in volume and a couple of test of resistance is very bullish.

7. Volume accompanies price action: When the trend line is broken and price starts inching up, bigger volume should start coming in, that will confirm that we are in the right stock and along with you, the market has been watching it too. And the increase in volume also acts as an catalyst to propel the stock upwards. But lot of times, volume increase comes after the stock has moved 5-8% over the trend line, so not always will you get volume confirmation right away, but it is still desirable.

I think we are set to look at price targets and risk reward ratios.

Cheers!

Lazy

Technical Temptations Explained - Part II - Concept and Patterns

The technical chart patterns that I like and based on which I generate my lists are: flags, pennants, triangles, wedges

For more details on each pattern, please visit these websites:

http://www.thestockbandit.com/Chart-patterns.htm

http://www.chartpatterns.com/

http://www.chartpattern.com/understanding_chart_patterns.html

Why don't I want to talk in detail about each pattern? One reason is that I am very lazy!

But seriously, it does not matter what is the exact pattern, as long as it fits the general principle of why some patterns keep appearing day after day and have high probability of short term big moves!

Some patterns are bullish, while some are bearish. As I like to keep things simple, I will call all bullish patterns - bull flag and all bearish patterns - bear flag

Why only bull flags and similar flavours? Easy to identify, widely followed, good upward potential, favourable risk rewards ratio. Hey come on! It's the favourite pattern of Dan Zanger too! (He is the world record holder of biggest annualized return. He turned 11 thousand dollars into 18 million in two years. He is also the founder of http://www.chartpattern.com/ ). Hope that gets your attention!!

As shown in figure 1, XOMA formed two bull flags in a space of 10 days. The first one is a classic bull flag. If I see such a pattern I usually take a trade once the upper trend line is broken!

As shown in figure 2, VSCN formed a bear flag and broke down hard once trend line was broken.

Figure 1: XOMA one month chart

Bull Flag: Price rises sharply upwards on big volume (green lines). This forms the pole of the flag. Then there is a consolidation phase with diminishing price/volume (Blue lines). This consolidation phase might look different for different stocks, but for simplicity of things we will still call it a flag. An upper trend line can be drawn joining the highs of the day. As price breaks this trend line on increasing volume (blue price line), then and only then should one buy. Price shoots up sharply on another big wave of volume (purple lines). This is the part of the move we are trying to catch. Stop goes just below the lowest price in the flag or any other low risk point (we will talk about stops in more detail).


Figure 2: VSCN bearish chart

Bear Flag: Bear flag is an inverted bull flag. Price falls sharply downwards on big volume (brown lines). This forms the pole of the bear flag. Then there is a consolidation phase with diminishing volume (green lines). A lower trend line can be drawn joining the lows of the day. As price breaks this trend line (lower green price line), then and only then should one short the stock. Stop goes just above the highest price in the flag or any other low risk point. For a falling stock, high volume is not a required condition to short the stock, stocks drop due to their own weight too! But high volume is always desired. Price again falls on higher volume (pink lines). This is the part of the move we are interested in.

That is the high level simplistic overview of the strategy, in the next post we will get into more details! (But don't worry, its all very simple)

Cheers!
Lazy

Technical Temptations Explained - Part I - Ground Rules

Lets set a few ground rules first:

1. I like to keep things very, very simple (Not a coincidence that I call myself lazy!)

2. All stocks posted in this blog are based purely on technical analysis, based on chart patterns. While building the list, I do not look at fundamentals, news, earnings announcements, earnings date etc. If I pick a trade from the list, then I will look at a few key areas, and I suggest everyone to do the same. In a later post I will explain what key areas I look at before picking a trade.

3. As I have mentioned earlier, these picks are "expected" to move 5-20% within 1-10 days timeframe. A few will certainly move 100-200% but that is not the expectation. Some of them might not move within 10 days, but might make a move on the 21st day, but again that is not the expectation. As these picks are only "expected" to move, some may break down or not move at all, that's okay. I will explain how to pick the trades and bring the odds in our favour based on price-volume action and a few other indicators.

3. If someone is more fundamentally inclined, and is looking at a bit longer timeframe, you are most welcome to check out my EPS momentum based blog.

4. If you have any questions, any suggestions, any criticism, any corrections, just go ahead and post a comment, or send an email. I appreciate all feedback.

5. When I was a newbie to trading, I did not have anyone to teach me these concepts. I picked all these stuff from reading books, visiting websites and following blogs. If my posts are helpful to even one person new to trading, that's all I want.

6. The picks I post are just a bunch of potential candidates comprising various price ranges/exchanges. Once you grasp the concept please feel free to generate your own ideas or finding better picks from somewhere else.

7. I also include some "Volume Explosion" candidates. They are separate from the technical candidates. I just include them so that if anything exciting happens the next day, people can keep and eye and take a trade if it is there. From now onwards I will separate that list so that it does not interfere with the core picks.

Cheers!

Lazy

Work cut out for this weekend...

I will do a series of posts to explain the technical temptations.

I wrote an email to Brian Shannon at Alpha Trends to let him know I might be using some concepts which I have picked up over time from his market and ideas videos. He also has an online class, which I have heard is very good but never got a chance to attend. So, I will use only the concepts that are available on his public blog.

I agree that these concepts are universal but as I have learnt a lot from him, I felt it would be respectful to get his blessing, he gave his thumbs up! So, we are all set. Whatever time I can make over the weekend, I will try to do the posts and be done with it.

Cheers!
Lazy

List for Monday, Oct 8, 2007

Again long list, shortened it as much as I could!

I had hastened my buy in SSTR, it was not ready yet, I got out yesterday. Will wait for it to clear resistance and show strength, before considering it further.

Looking good from outside list: ACTS NGS ONCY
From today's list: DUSA TBV SNG
China plays from today's list: CNTF CSUN CWTD CPHI KONG GRRF TBV WX ORS CTDC ZNPH (All Chinese stocks are very speculative and risky)

LEV SNG HSPO ORS WX KONG CWTD CPHI VTLV EFUT CMQ HOMS TBV BHIP RYL GRRF NEOL GXPI AMMY CNTF CSUN VIGN ZHNP NGLPF GOAM ENMD PIR DUSA CTDC WGDFF ACXM

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Friday, Oct 5, 2007

I was both surprised and pleased that NTRI had come up as a bearish pattern in my scan few days back. Today it dropped 35%!


From today's list: KRY MGH (Volume Explosion candidate, but looks interesting)


CHME GAI SORD PHGI MVL SLH SOLUQ WAG CVDT LIPD GRRF BIDU MGH CWLC MRED EJ CNIC BDC MEA KRY MPEL BBND LDTI DGTL



Cheers!
Lazy

List for Thursday, Oct 4, 2007

Long list :( My apologies, did not know which ones to drop!

Today I picked up some SSTR for a trade, volume not very convincing yet though.

From today's list: NPSP

ASUR CTVWF CSCT TBV GLNG SLGLF OEGY GBN CLWT CWLC SVA IFMX GMKT HOMS SDTH HIHO SPRT ACTS PTSC ERHE RVSN SIRF WNS IO MEOH NPSP CCGY BLC NSUR

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Wednesday, Oct 3, 2007

As hoped, XOMA showed strength :)

Today was the best day in my trading life! Markets were flat but my portfolio was on fire! After a long time I took a technical trade yesterday in XOMA. The chart was too good to let go, and it got reflected in the action today! Sold some at 3.98, rest I will leave with tight stops.

Most of my fundamental holdings also were unstoppable today, the ones that I post in my other blog

As per request from my friend, I will provide just the symbols below the list, for easy cut and paste into your watchlist, hope that helps.

From today's list: TZOO SSTR PXLW HA CPRT

CGPI CHHL CPRT HA HEB HMX III JSDA MPEL PIR PXLW QSC SFEG SIGA SOIGF SPKL SSRX SSTR THO TKER TZOO VITA YTEC

Cheers!

Lazy

List for Tuesday, Oct 2, 2007

After a long time, today I got some time to check the markets, took a trade in XOMA, hope it continues the end of day momentum tomorrow!

From today's list: INCY CBAK KUN


Cheers!
Lazy